AAA-Pharma GmbH is a family-run pharmaceutical company based in Böblingen near Stuttgart.For more than 25 years, AAA-Pharma has stood for reliable generics and a stable supply ofmedicines – known in medical circles as the yellow brand.
At its core is a strategy consistently geared toward rebate agreements with health insurers. Thegoal is to make high-quality medicines economically plannable and available nationwide. As partof the Wörwag Pharma Group, AAA-Pharma combines sound pharmaceutical expertise with leanstructures and a clear focus on the future.
To ensure that patients always have access to the medicines they need, a supply chain thatthinks ahead is essential. This is precisely where the challenge lies: demand, market movements,and external factors are constantly changing. Plannability becomes a key resource, and a reliableability to deliver the benchmark.
The collaboration between AAA-Pharma and paretos was initiated as part of the Plug and PlayHealth program. Plug and Play supported the project from partner identification through projectlaunch to successful implementation – providing the structured framework that enabled fast andfocused collaboration.
Challenge
A precise monthly forecast of future demand is a central factor in a reliable supply of medicines. Deviations between the forecast and actual demand have a direct impact on the ability to deliver and must therefore be kept as low as possible.
AAA-Pharma’s existing forecasting was time-consuming, heavily manual, and limited in the number of influencing factors it could take into account. The result: limited forecast accuracy combined with high operational effort. For a company committed to actively securing supply, this was not a sustainable state of affairs.
The central challenge was to develop a forecasting model superior to the existing approach – one that accounts for both AAA’s internal processes and the specifics of the generics market, while at the same time reducing the operational workload of the planning team.
Solution
In its collaboration with paretos, AAA-Pharma brings together what makes supply strong: industry expertise and technological innovation. In an agile setup, the two partners developed AI-based forecasting that predicts demand more precisely and makes supply chains more robust.
Just a few weeks after the first contact, the project began with a joint kick-off, followed by a structured, agile implementation process. Key building blocks were the preparation of relevant data, close and continuous exchange between the teams, the evaluation and optimization of the AI models, and iterative testing phases with clear feedback loops.
The model was developed iteratively and deliberately enhanced with AAA- and generics-specific factors to continuously improve forecast quality and reflect the particularities of the industry. Step by step, trust in the forecasts was built – culminating in the successful integration of the AI forecast into AAA’s existing processes in October 2025.
Results
Through this approach, the AAA-Pharma and paretos teams were able to achieve all project goals. Today, the AI-supported forecasting is used by everyone responsible for demand planning and significantly supports decision-making. This marks an important milestone on AAA-Pharma’s path toward becoming a data-driven organization.
Thanks to the full integration of the AI forecast into operational planning processes, time-consuming manual planning is no longer necessary. The planning team can focus on strategic decisions instead of data maintenance. More reliable coordination with suppliers, reduced excess inventory, and improved supply to patients and pharmacies are direct results.
Beyond this, the project has lastingly strengthened internal capabilities for integrating modern technological solutions – and shown how innovation can concretely contribute to supply security. The structured, data-driven approach also opens up tangible business impact potential through cost savings and revenue growth.
